India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
Pronab Sen, principal advisor in the Planning Commission, says that it is difficult to pinpoint the exact GDP number for the current fiscal, as IIP data is questionable and contradicts with exports growth story.
The weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity may result in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points, opine top economists. They also said the external economic pressures like trade policies and others would require continued RBI's accommodative stance and policy support for the Indian industry to sustain the growth.
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
Export-led Indian IT sector is not directly hit by Trump's tariff order on goods, but there could be worrisome indirect bearings on it arising out of possible slowdown in decision-making and GDP growth in America over higher tariffs, which may then cloud demand from specific verticals, according to some analysts.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the world is facing "profound imbalances" in trade and energy security, and is undergoing a structural transformation, with India standing out as a 'stabilising force' that can withstand external shocks.
Although the rising tide of growth has lifted all boats, the faster-growing, richer states have steadily pulled apart from the slower-growing, poorer states. Although this growing divergence has been observed during earlier periods as well, factors responsible for it are not fully understood.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 11,820 crore ($1.3 billion) from Indian equities in the first week of this month, primarily driven by the sharp depreciation of the rupee. This sharp withdrawal follows a net outflow of Rs 3,765 crore in November, further pressuring markets.
'Earnings growth will be the main driver of India's market in 2026, with profits expected to rise 9% to 10% in H2 FY26 and accelerate to 12% to 15% in FY27.'
These changes certainly bring India's GST a lot closer to what an ideal GST would look like, points out Karan Bhasin.
Jaitley said the government has created transparent environment.
Among the Sensex firms, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, ITC and L&T were the major laggards. Asian Paints, Mahindra & Mahindra, BEL, Adani Ports, State Bank of India, Trent, HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Retail inflation rose to a three-month high of 1.33 per cent in December 2025 mainly due to higher prices of kitchen essentials, including vegetables and protein-rich items.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
"We expect GDP growth to slow from 7.3 per cent year-on-year in July-September 2016 to 6.0 per cent in October-December 2016 and 5.7 per cent in January-March 2017," Nomura said in a research note.
A sluggish manufacturing sector pulled down the economic growth to 8.9 per cent during the July-September quarter from 10.2 per cent.
As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to grow to 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal compared to 1.3 per cent in 2022-23. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 8.1 per cent in the current fiscal against 4.1 per cent in 2022-23.
A British brokerage on Tuesday cut India's FY22 GDP growth estimate by a sharp 0.80 per cent to 9.2 per cent, saying the economic impact of the second wave of infections has been deeper than initially expected. Barclays chief India economist Rahul Bajoria also mentioned the slow pace of vaccinations in the country and the rolling lockdowns across many states for the estimate. It can be noted that last month has seen a slew of similar forecasts from analysts, even as the RBI maintained its estimate of a 10.5 per cent growth in real GDP.
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
Whether nominal or real, India's investment rate needs to increase by 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP to support 8 per cent real growth, recommends Nikhil Gupta.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday slashed the growth projection to 7 per cent for the current fiscal from the earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent, citing aggressive tightening of monetary policies globally and moderation in demand. Unveiling the fifth monetary policy for this fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank remains committed to price stability to put the country on the sustained path of growth.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday raised India's growth projection for 2023 calendar year to 6.7 per cent on account of robust economic momentum. "Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India's 7.8 per cent real GDP growth in the second (April-June) quarter from a year ago. "We have accordingly raised our 2023 calendar year growth forecast for India from 5.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent," Moody's said in its Global Macro Outlook. - el nino
According to Central statistics office press note, GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2015-16 is estimated at 32.43 lakh crore, as against 29.80 lakh crore in Q1 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 8.8 percent.
The Indian economy is expected to be adversely affected by a surge in inflation fuelled by energy and commodity prices. Despite signs of growth slowing down from the last year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already hiked interest rates twice in June to deal with inflationary pressures and may well do so again, S&P said in a statement.
HSBC on Monday lowered India's GDP forecast for the current financial year to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier saying economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on the growth forecast in the coming months.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
After bumbling for years since 2014, the Modi government seems to believe that massive government expenditure will lead us to prosperity supported by 'seat-of-the-pants' decision-making, observes Debashis Basu.
CRISIL chief economist D K Joshi is of the opinion that GDP is an indicator of the health of the economy.
UPI crossed 20 billion monthly transactions for the first time in August 2025, with a transaction value of Rs 24.85 trillion.
'One Chinese interlocutor said India should realise that "China can do without India, but India could not do without China", pointing to its inability to do without Chinese intermediates and components,' former foreign secretary Shyam Saran discovers on a visit to China.
Attributing the growth to an upswing in consumption and investment, the World Bank has said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
India's services sector growth touched a four-month high in December, supported by new business inflows on strong demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index, rose from 58.4 in November to 59.3 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion in four months.
Projecting acceleration in India's GDP growth to 9% for FY 2011-012, Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister seeks measure to address serious supply bottlenecks.
The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, saying elevated consumer confidence will drive spending, besides increased investments. In June update to its global economic outlook report, Fitch said it expects inflation to decline to 4.5 per cent by end of this year and RBI to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in June, it had trimmed the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent.
'Indian markets may underperform global peers for the next two quarters.' 'But beyond that, India should catch up and resume its long-term growth path.'
